With the high price of styrene, the main raw material, has fallen, the theoretical profit of ABS has finally “turned from negative to positive” (see Figure 1). It’s not easy, imagine the tragedy of petrochemical enterprises at the beginning of the year when they lost 1K in the production of one ton of blood, and now the small profit of 10 yuan is inconspicuous, but it is also commendable. “There is money to make”, may be one of the most wonderful words on the planet, but unfortunately it is not applicable to the ABS industry, especially in recent years, petrochemical plants and traders are almost the same as the opponent of the general needle point to the wheat mang, this consumption can be long, the other is bound to be eliminated, popular, only the petrochemical enterprises are uncomfortable enough, they (petrochemical enterprises) in the large losses after a variety of self-insurance or self-help behavior (economic burden reduction), in exchange for the market rebound, and then stimulate the market to turn over, for the business to create a time and place to make money, But once petrochemical companies begin to make money, they (petrochemical enterprises) will immediately replace the existing “low load, high unit consumption” mode with “full firepower”, in fact, last week, LG Yongxing, LG Huizhou, Zhangzhou Chimei, Liaoning Kingfa and other manufacturers have been openly and secretly increasing the load, Haijiang is also restarting, ABS industry operating rate of 62.4%, up 5 percentage points from the previous month, this is not over, to be followed by Hengli stable operation; The recovery of the acrylonitrile plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical, the first 300,000 tons of 1.2 million tons of new ABS production capacity is released, and the four gold-inlaid characters of “oversupply” will replace the “cost-led” again and return to the public’s field of vision, becoming the key resistance to the market – the hidden dangers accumulated by the heavy position are not not not exploding, the time has not come, and the author believes that if the market collapses, the collapse of ABS will be more violent than styrene, because the contradiction between supply and demand of ABS is more acute and more direct, in addition to Hengli and Zhejiang Petrochemical, Jihua, Daqing, Xinpu….. (Haike postponed to next year) which is not a fuel-efficient lamp, will send a sonorous and powerful back break to the market.
Finally, from a personal point of view, the price of ABS has reached the peak, this top, definitely not the “stage top”, or even the “annual peak”, the watershed of the market, perhaps at this moment, the mainstream market in June (0215A), should be between 10800-11200, and then go down, just look at the face of styrene is not enough, but also pure benzene to eat ah.
